000 AXNT20 KNHC 271035 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 05N14W TO 02N25W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N49W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM 01S-07N E OF 15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 06S- 01S BETWEEN 23W-31W AND FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 20W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE E OF 85W. THESE CONDITIONS ALOFT ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 20N W OF 92W. ADVECTION FOG IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 91W. OTHERWISE...SE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS. RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 KT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS TUESDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT EXCEPT FOR HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS...PUERTO RICO AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EXCEPTED REGIONS ABOVE WHICH MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TODAY. OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W- 84W BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A 1009 MB LOW OVER PANAMA NEAR 08N81W. OTHERWISE...TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-79W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAINSHOWERS IN THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SE TO NW ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO ENTER THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N65W TO 28N70W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO 28N68W 25N71W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 61W-66W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD AND DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 989 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 48N37W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N41W CONTINUING SW TO 24N49W TO 20N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT WESTWARD TO 19N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR