000 AXNT20 KNHC 270602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N18W TO 03N26W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 0N34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S41W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM 03N- 06N E OF 27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 04S-01S BETWEEN 21W- 30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 02S-08N W OF 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE E OF 92W. THESE CONDITIONS ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N83W PROVIDE FOR OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR WESTERN GULF FROM 19N-26N W OF 95W WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS. ADVECTION FOG IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE...SE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 KT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS TUESDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT EXCEPT FOR HISPANIOLA...ADJACENT WATERS AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EXCEPTED REGIONS ABOVE WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-83W BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE SW BASIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION. ...HISPANIOLA... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAINSHOWERS IN THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SE TO NW ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO ENTER THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N68W TO 29N74W TO 29N78W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO JACKSONVILLE. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-66W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD AND DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 992 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 46N40W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N43W CONTINUING SW TO 24N50W TO 21N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT WESTWARD TO 21N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 44W-56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N19W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR