000 AXNT20 KNHC 262344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 06N16W TO 04N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 14W- 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FURTHER PROMOTING THE FAIR WEATHER IS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...CONTINUES TO REMAIN A FAIRLY BENIGN FEATURE DUE IN PART TO MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE BASIN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITH WESTERN PORTIONS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WEAKEN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING REMAINS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AS PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 72W-85W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 09N FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-76W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS A RESULT OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W EXTENDING SW TO 30N76W THEN WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W. WHILE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS COLD FRONT LACKS CONVECTION AND REMAINS IN FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD AND DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 994 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 45N41W. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W CONTINUING SW TO 26N50W TO 22N64W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARLY PARALLELS THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N42W SW TO 25N50W TO 21N60W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N...AND FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 48W-69W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 36N21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN