000
AXNT20 KNHC 261032
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 
05N16W TO 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS 
NEAR 01N21W CONTINUING TO 01S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06S-04N E OF 
24W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-05N W OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                          
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALOFT AND ADVECTS 
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN BASIN. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE TO A BASE 
OVER THE W ATLC WATERS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 
1001 MB LOW NEAR 38N73W SW TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. FROM GEORGIA THE 
FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE 
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NE TEXAS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM 
FRONT. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N90W TO 16N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S 
OF 25N W OF 90W. ADVECTION FOG IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NW GULF N 
OF 27N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES 
ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OVER THE E GULF NEAR 
27N84W. THIS SURFACE PATTERN IS PROVIDING THE E GULF WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND OF 5-10 KT AND E-SE WIND OF 10-15 KT ACROSS 
THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COASTLINE WILL 
VANISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE 
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE W ATLC WATERS. SE SURFACE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO TUE GRADUALLY 
INCREASING INTO THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD 
OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING 
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS. LINGERING MOISTURE 
REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA AS A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS 
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. THIS MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR 
RAINSHOWERS LATER TODAY...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-83W ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE 
OF 10 TO 20 KT...STRONGEST S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-78W. NO MAJOR 
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...                                        
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT 
AND A SURFACE TROUGH NOW OVER THE ATLC WATERS WILL ENHANCE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS 
LATER TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST 
TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY MON MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE 
TO A BASE OVER THE W ATLC WATERS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS FROM A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 38N73W SW TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. 
FROM GEORGIA THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NE TEXAS WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE W ATLC WATERS 
LATER THIS MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP 
LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 
991 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 41N47W. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N46W 
CONTINUING SW TO 24N54W TO 23N63W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 
24N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N48W SW TO 
21N59W TO COASTAL WATERS OF N HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED 
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES NEAR 35N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR