000 AXNT20 KNHC 260559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 05N17W TO 01N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 01N21W CONTINUING TO 02S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-05N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N W OF 21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALOFT AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN BASIN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE TO GEORGIA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA SW TO SW GEORGIA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO EASTERN TEXAS. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WATERS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COASTLINE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 24N W OF 93W. ADVECTION FOG IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 95W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N84W. THIS SURFACE PATTERN IS PROVIDING THE E GULF WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND OF 5-10 KT AND E-SE OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COASTLINE WILL VANISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE W ATLC WATERS. SE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS. LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. THIS MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING IS THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...STRONGEST S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-79W. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW OVER THE ATLC WATERS PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE TO GEORGIA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA SW TO SW GEORGIA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO EASTERN TEXAS. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE W ATLC WATERS LATER THIS MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 990 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 41N50W. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N47W CONTINUING SW TO 25N53W TO 23N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N50W SW TO 21N61W TO COASTAL WATERS OF N HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PRIMARY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES NEAR 35N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR