000 AXNT20 KNHC 211805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EST MON APR 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N14W TO 2N25W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...TO 3S39W NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W...AND FROM 2N TO 1S BETWEEN 48W AND 51W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 4N TO 3S BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N1W IN GHANA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GHANA...TO 3N6W AND 3N12W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO THE EAST OF 8W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH ARE MOVING EASTWARD...THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES BETWEEN FLORIDA AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER THE AREA OF BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...FROM THE AREA OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN SOUTHWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE BEING OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF LOUISIANA. THE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING DURING THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATTERSON LOUISIANA STILL IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. MOSTLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND SOME HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD. VALPARAISO IS REPORTING A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SARASOTA AND PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES/ CLEARING SKIES COVER FORT MYERS AND NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA... ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE RIDGE...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 70W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.57 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.24 IN TRINIDAD. THE PRECIPITATION IN MONTEGO BAY WAS RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N82W. THE PRECIPITATION IN TRINIDAD WAS RELATED TO A WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA... HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND IT MAY ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. SUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA... ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE RIDGE...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU- PRINCE HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND 500 MB SHOWS NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF THE AREA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N70W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N...BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 26N70W...TO 22N74W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 20N78W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N78W TO 20N82W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 32N SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W...AND FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N47W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 500 NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 21N34W 17N42W...AND WITHIN 800 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 17N42W 11N49W 9N59W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N47W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 67W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO 21N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N74W TO 27N77W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 65W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT