000 AXNT20 KNHC 211103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AND THE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 14N17W TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THERE AND CONTINUES JUST S OF THE EQUATOR WEST OF 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS SOUTH OF WEST AFRICA EAST OF 10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE- ALABAMA BORDER WITH A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CORRESPONDINGLY...SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WESTERN GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS IS BLOWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM DEEP CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO LATE YESTERDAY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF EVEN MORE AS THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY...THOUGH LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INDICATED FROM THERE TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...WITH THE USUAL EXCEPTION OF STRONGER NE WINDS OF 25 KT NORTH OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS FURTHER SLACKEN. ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE...POSSIBLY AN EARLY SEASON WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...ALSO IS REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THE WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER- LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ...HISPANIOLA... NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER- LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N73W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN CUBA AND A SECONDARY TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ABOUT 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N. SURFACE WINDS REACH UP TO 30 KT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ALL OF THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AT ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION AS THE SURFACE LOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD LIFT OUT AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE BAROCLINICITY OF THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS SOME...LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND UPPER- LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN UP TO STRONG BREEZE OR NEAR GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FARTHER TO THE EAST...A ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY JUST REACH AROUND 30N EAST OF 40W LATE TODAY...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT APPEARS MINIMAL AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 10253 MB HIGH NEAR 29N51W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS. 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