000 AXNT20 KNHC 181745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NE GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 28.5N87W AT 1200 UTC. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL CONTINUE NE OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT MORNING. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS OF LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. IN FACT...THE 1524 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN AROUND 70 NM ON THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 4N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND S OF 2N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 6N13W. ...DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS CENTERED NEAR 28.5N87W AT 1200 UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS COVERING MAINLY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF THIS DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA EMERGING INTO THE SW N ATLC ON SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE. ALOFT...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO OVER THE W GULF AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE RELATED TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRES. A WIDE-BAND OF SHOWERS WITH TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PAR OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS QUICK PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES IN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS THEN WEAKENING SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES N OF AREA AND THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SW ATLC. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...SE WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE ARE TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS OF THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE EAST ON SAT RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO NEAR COCOA BEACH FLORIDA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT N OF AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY NE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXITING GEORGIA COAST SAT MORNING. FREEPORT IN THE NW BAHAMAS REPORTED 2.31 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N78W TO FLORIDA KEYS SAT AFTERNOON...THEN EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS MON EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE ATLC RIDGE. A 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N54W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE SEEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR 29N20W AND WILL DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES OVER THE EASTERN ATLC AND STRETCHES FROM A LOW PRES LOCATED WELL N OF AREA TO 31N29W TO 26N36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR