000
AXNT20 KNHC 161734
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE ITCZ OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 
27W TO 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W-46W

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THEN 
STATIONARY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN 
AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT N AS A WARM 
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY 
STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY 
FRONT IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE 
FRONT.  THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...20-25 KT...CONTINUE ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N73W TO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N68W 
TO HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N33W TO 20N58W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 49W-61W. A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT THEN WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT 
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
DGS