000
AXNT20 KNHC 160004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING... 

COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N83W TO 25N87W TO 
18N93W. A STORM WARNING IS FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE 
FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W WITH NW TO N WINDS 40 TO 50 KT AND SEAS 
12 TO 20 FT. A GALE WARNING IS ELSEWHERE S OF 25N W OF 90W WITH 
NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 15 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA W OF FRONT HAS NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND 
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 
10N14W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO EQ26W TO 1S34W 
TO 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 78W-92W...AND FROM 4N-8N 
BETWEEN 120W-135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AREAS OF GALE AND 
STORM. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO 
INCLUDE OVER FLORIDA. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL 
TEXAS MAINTAINING A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FROM THE 
SOUTH AT 15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT 
TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO 
RETROGRAGE BACK NORTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT WITH 
CONVECTION. 
 
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE 
ISLAND OF COZUMEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE ISLAND OF 
ROATAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 10 TO 
20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE ENTIRE N COAST OF CUBA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA N OF 8N BETWEEN 72W-76W. 
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. MORE 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INLAND OVER CENTRAL 
HISPANIOLA...AND INLAND OVER JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
BROAD RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.  

...HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N64W TO 
23N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL E OF THE TROUGH MOSTLY DUE TO 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 39N50W PRODUCING BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 26N60W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC IN 
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA