000 AXNT20 KNHC 151047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF FROM 22N-28N W OF 94W ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THESE GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W GULF THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORM WINDS EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF TIME TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N17W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 32W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES S TO OVER THE N HALF OF MEXICO CLIPPING THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N87W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA CITY TO OVER SW GEORGIA JUST S OF COLUMBUS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE FLORIDA COAST THEN WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 30N85.5W TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT AND E OF LINE FROM ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF THE FRONT CLEAR SKIES. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL OVER THE SE GULF LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE GULF ON WED AND BECOMING A STRONG BREEZE OVER NE GULF WATERS THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS GIVING THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N E OF 75W AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 75W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY. ENHANCED TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S HAITI/SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E AND WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY. THE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ON WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 31N60W TO 23N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-30N W OF 56W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N50W ALONG 24N35W TO WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING FROM 31N72W TO CAY SAL BANK WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW