000 AXNT20 KNHC 150555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF FROM 26N-28N W OF 95W ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THESE GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH STORM WINDS EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF TIME TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N13W TO 1N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES DIPS S OVER N MEXICO CLIPPING THE FAR NW GULF AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY ALONG 25N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 85W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AND FROM 21N TO THE FRONT W OF 95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E THROUGH TONIGHT GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF THE FRONT CLEAR SKIES. COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR SUNRISE TODAY AND STALL OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF AROUND SUNRISE WED. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE GULF ON WED AND WED NIGHT INCREASING TO A STRONG BREEZE OVER THE NE GULF ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS GIVING THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA W OF 70W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 67W AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 75W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BRIEFLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THEN STALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN ON LATER TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA W OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TODAY INTO WED AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY. THE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ON WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 23N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-30N W OF 55W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO MOROCCO AFRICA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST ON TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO THE CAY SAL BANK ON WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW