000 AXNT20 KNHC 142339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EST MON APR 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ACCORDING TO THE 14/2100 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N93W TO 27N96W. SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 30 NM OF FRONT. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 30N88W TO 19N96W. STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET FROM 22N TO 28N TO THE WEST OF 94W. THE 24- HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 30N84W TO 19N92W. STORM-FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 13 TO 20 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...SEA HEIGHTS 13 TO 20 FEET. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 3N20W...TO AND ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W AND 33W... TO 1S36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6S BETWEEN 22W AND 51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 13W AND 15W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A...FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR...ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...CURVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN MEXICO FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...AND KVBS...AND KDLP. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KVAF... KHQI...KGUL...KEIR...KSPR AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 6500 FEET... KATP...KMDJ AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...COVERING MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LOW LEVEL AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W TO 27N63W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W...TO 17N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N61W 27N62W 24N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN A FEW CELLS IN CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND 23N81W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 28N73W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 74W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 14.5W BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 84W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W TO 27N63W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W...TO 17N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N61W 27N62W 24N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 85W. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH THAT IS CUTTING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...GIVING WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A WESTERN-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W TO 27N63W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W...TO 17N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N61W 27N62W 24N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N56W 26N59W 23N65W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N33W 15N45W AND 14N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 33W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 29N48W 26N42W 23N30W AND 24N17W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 28N73W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N84W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N64W TO 31N60W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT