000 AXNT20 KNHC 141747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATE MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 15/0000 UTC NORTH OF THE FRONT. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY S OF 22N W OF 94W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N12W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05W BETWEEN 04W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N94W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE GULF GENERALLY N OF 22N AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGHING BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SE CONUS AND GULF BASIN. MOST PRECIPITATION REMAINS INLAND STRETCHING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS NE TO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE GULF BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE GULF TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS FORECAST S OF 22N W OF 94W BEGINNING 15/1800 UTC AND LASTING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED FROM THE COLOMBIA BASIN NW TO THE YUCATAN BASIN. E OF 80W...UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PREVAIL AND REMAIN WITHIN MODERATELY DRY AIR. THE STABLE CONDITIONS REFLECT TO THE SURFACE AS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY N OF 17N AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 77W. OTHERWISE...THE LAST IMPACT TO MENTION IS THE STRONG TRADES OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W- 77W...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADES OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 14/1418 UTC INDICATED E-NE WINDS RANGING 25 TO 30 KT S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAIR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND MAY MOVE INLAND BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... EMBEDDED WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N64W NE TO 29N59W THAT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 54W-61W TO THE EAST...AND FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 63W-69W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 45N52W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 34N28W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N22W. WHILE THE WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS 26N...VERY LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN