000 AXNT20 KNHC 141030 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 15/0000 UTC NORTH OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W SW TO 02N14W TO 01S20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 0N31W TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 01S-06N BETWEEN 06W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 14W-20W AND WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-01N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC WATERS EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WELL AS INTO THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING TO THE BASIN WITH E-SE WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-20 KT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING. ALOFT...A RIDGE PROVIDES WITH WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTS HAZE AND DENSE FOG N OF 27N W OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 88W. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS IS ADVECTING LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF STARTING TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... E-NE WIND FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL AND SW N ATLC WATERS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS THROUGH TUE EVENING. ALOFT...WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-79W S OF 17N WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 20-25 KT WITH THE MAX OF 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NO SURFACE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BY TUE NIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL EXTEND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS. HOWEVER...A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TUE EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC WATERS PROVIDING NE-E FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 35N57W TO 23N62W. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 50W- 61W. NE OF THE BAHAMAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN NEARBY THE LOCATION OF A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 72W-75W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THEN ON TUE NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE GULF INTO THE SW N ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR