000
AXNT20 KNHC 132313
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA 
COASTS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 
GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 15/0000 UTC NORTH OF THE 
FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 
01S13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
01S13W TO 03S20W TO 03S30W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT 
03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03S29W TO THE EQUATOR AT 
34W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                           
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EARLY THIS EVENING 
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 
THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO 
THE 60 TO 70 KNOT RANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS DUE TO A  
TOUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE 
GULF EXCEPT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE 
HIGHEST SPEEDS...ESTIMATED 35 TO 45 KNOTS...FROM 17N TO 19N. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE 
BASIN. EASTERLY WINDS ARE STRONG OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W WITH SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT 
RANGE AND SEAS 8 TO 11 FEET IN NE SWELL.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAIR 
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND 
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOR 
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MONDAY.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ORIENTED 
NE TO SW AND HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E INTO THE W CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC IN 48 HOURS AND STRENGTHEN. MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N 
OF 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 48W. WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE 
EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF ABOUT 20N EXCEPT FOR A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH N OF 28N E OF 20W INTO AFRICA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WINDS 
ALOFT ARE LOCATED S OF ABOUT 18N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 40W. AT THE 
SURFACE A 1019 MB LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR 27N58W AND A TROUGH IS 
LOCATED FROM 27N74W ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB