000 AXNT20 KNHC 131758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 15/0600 UTC NORTH OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 01N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 07W BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 04W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 17W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ON THE HEELS OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. WHILE RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF... INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE NW GULF. MOST PRECIPITATION HOWEVER IS OCCURRING FAR INLAND STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NE TO NW ARKANSAS AND SW MISSOURI. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE GULF...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N76W AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N76W THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE E-NE TO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...ISOLATED AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ADVECT WESTWARD WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 80W...AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASIDE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT REMAINS STRONG TRADES OCCURRING S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-78W...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADES OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAIR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF 29N76W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N78W TO 27N74W. TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FOCUSED OVER 32N62W THAT SUPPORTS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N61W TO 29N58W. BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 54W-77W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N54W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER W-SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NE CENTERED NEAR 34N23W. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A GRADUALLY WEAKENING 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N23W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 16W-18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN