000
AXNT20 KNHC 122322
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 
01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
01N20W TO 01S30W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT 03S41W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N15W TO 02N20W TO 03N30W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF EARLY THIS EVENING. 
LOOKING UPSTREAM A SHALLOW MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED 
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS MOVING E ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. AT THE 
SURFACE BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 29N90W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS 
COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE GULF. SOUTHEAST TO S 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NW 
GULF IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN S OF ABOUT 19N. A 
WESTERLY JET IS LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING THROUGH 
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 21N80W TO 22N76W WITH WINDS 
ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT 
IS FORECAST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE BASIN 
IS VOID OF ANY SURFACE FEATURES. IN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WINDS ARE NE TO E 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS 8 
TO 13 FT IN NE SWELL. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. 
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 
HOURS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE JET MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION EXTENDS FROM 
22N76W TO 23N65W TO 22N55W AND THEN WEAKENS. FLOW ALOFT AS 
INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS DIFFLUENT FROM 20N TO 30N 
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W...MOVING E ABOUT 
20 KNOTS...WITH THE AXIS LOCATED THROUGH 32N52W TO 23N57W. NEXT 
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 32N37W TO 
25N39W. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 
15 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 28N23W AND IS MOVING E 
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE E SIDE 
OF THE CIRCULATION. A TROPICAL JET IS LOCATED THROUGH 10N45W TO 
16N35W TO 15N20W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 17N WITH WINDS AS HIGH 
AS 50 TO 60 KNOTS. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT 28N25W WITH A 
TROUGH LOCATED SW TO 20N35W. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT 
IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N60W TO 26N73W TO 23N76W. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
CAB