000 AXNT20 KNHC 121037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOW PRES OVER NW S AMERICA SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER THEN CONTINUES TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS ALONG 01N30W 0N40W TO 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 08W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-07N BETWEEN 20W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER N OF 40N EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WATERS TO PROVIDE E-SE WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...BOTH THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON NIGHT WITH STRONG N WINDS AND POSSIBLE GALES BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CUBA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRODUCING ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE NE TO BEYOND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. EASTERLIES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WILL SUBSIDE BY MON MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REDUCES. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER CUBA THROUGHOUT SUN NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY DRY AIR AT THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ISLAND IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRODUCING ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 32N45W TO 25N60W WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING FROM 32N46W TO 27N55W BY EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS THE SUPPORTING TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER SOUTH...MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WEST OF 55W WILL INCREASE SLIGHT BY TUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N28W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 19N35W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 20W-28W AND WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR/CHRISTENSEN