000 AXNT20 KNHC 120603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOW PRES OVER NW S AMERICA SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER THEN CONTINUES TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS ALONG 0N30W 0N40W TO 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 01N BETWEEN 05W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-05N BETWEEN 18W- 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF 36N EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WATERS TO PROVIDE E-SE WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED NEAR PANAMA CITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...BOTH THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON NIGHT WITH STRONG N WINDS AND POSSIBLE GALES BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W. HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CUBA AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE NE TO BEYOND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. EASTERLIES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WILL SUBSIDE BY MON MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REDUCES. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER CUBA THROUGHOUT SUN NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CUBA IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM BERMUDA TO SE GEORGIA SUN AND MON. FARTHER EAST OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC AN UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 30N50W TO 25N62W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY CONTINUING TO 23N71W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W. A BROKEN BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTEND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THE WESTERN PART WILL DRIFT NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N28W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 18N37W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 22W-29W AND WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR