000 AXNT20 KNHC 112348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE BASIN AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA TODAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER THEN CONTINUES TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS ALONG 3N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 37W AND FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA W OF 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH A WEAK HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DOMINATES THE GULF REGION PRODUCING MAINLY AN E-SE FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SAT THEN DRIFT SLIGHTLY N SUN AND MON. EXPECT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20 KT LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON NIGHT WITH STRONG N WINDS AND POSSIBLE GALES BEHIND IT. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALL THE WAY NE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER EASTERN CUBA GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCH FROM NEAR CAMAGUEY CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW AND INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SAT. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. NE TRADE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO PARTS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE NE TO BEYOND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO DOMINATES MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE E ATLC CROSSES NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO THEN EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER HISPANIOLA THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CUBA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NW AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N52W TO 25N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS INTO EASTERN CUBA. A BROKEN BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THE WESTERN PART WILL DRIFT NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM BERMUDA TO SE GEORGIA SUN AND MON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NW OF THE AZORES. BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N28W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 21N33W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR