000 AXNT20 KNHC 111105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EST FRI APR 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 09.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 82W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N18W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF 6N11W 5N22W 3N35W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 98W FROM TEXAS INTO MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N80W 27N90W 25N93W 22N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N64W...THROUGH 32N70W...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO SITES...KMZG...KBQX...KVAF...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEHC... KVBS...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN TEXAS FROM PORT LAVACA AND VICTORIA NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND TO BEAUMONT...INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN CRESTVIEW FLORIDA IN THE PANHANDLE. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND FOG WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N60W AND 24N66W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 24N66W TO 21N73W BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 21N73W TO 20N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TO 16N84W ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO 17N80W TO 16N83W COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/WARM FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WESTWARD...ALONG 12N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 12N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 12N77W TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N74W TO 18.5N75.5W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 81W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W AROUND HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE SAME TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W 28N73W BEYOND 25N80W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO A 26N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 18N39W 15N46W 12N54W...TO 12N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 12N77W TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CURVES AWAY FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N31W...TO 25N28W 20N31W 18N40W 19N49W...AND 23N52W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 1000 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 15N39W 10N54W 6N66W 7N82W. THE DRIER AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE 26N32W 18N40W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE 32N53W-TO- SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N31W LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 23N52W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N64W...THROUGH 32N70W...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N55W TO 24N65W THEN STATIONARY TO 20N73W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W...INCLUDING IN THE APPROACHES TO THE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS...A WEAKENING TROUGH FROM 18N35W TO 19N50W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT