000 AXNT20 KNHC 101747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W THIS EVENING. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUN. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 3N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N- 7N BETWEEN 6W-16W AND FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W- 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE GULF N OF 27N. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE GULF S OF 27N E OF 90W. SKIES ARE REMARKABLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LEAVING A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE N GULF THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC BECOMING STATIONARY BEFORE IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN AT 10/1500 UTC ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA/ WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W AND CONTINUES ALONG 19N78W TO 14N82W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 11N83W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC OVER THE MONA PASSAGE COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE E ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER NE VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCREASING TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE EACH NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING THROUGH SUN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER HAITI THROUGH FRI AS THE W ATLC FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND FRI THEN AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND SHIFTS NW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AT 10/1500 UTC NEAR 32N57W THEN ALONG 26N64W TO 21N72W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E TIP OF CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/90 NM W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N51W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 28N32W IS SUPPORTING A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N33W AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 24N32W TO 21N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE FRONT. THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E WHILE THE S PORTION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENED AND DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NW AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTO SAT STRENGTHEN SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW