000 AXNT20 KNHC 101104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EST THU APR 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 09.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N15W 3N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...CONTINUING TO 2S30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N TO 2S BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 6N12W 4N22W 2N29W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE NOW-CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA... ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N92W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... THE VISIBILITIES AT SOME STATIONS ARE...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS 3 MILES WITH FOG...AT GULF SHORES ALABAMA OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG...PANAMA CITY 3 MILES WITH FOG...BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS SUPPORTING THE NOW-CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT...IS TO NORTH OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. IT SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 24N70W... ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF PANAMA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 25N70W 21N79W...AND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 20N76W 15N81W 9N82W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 77W...WITH A TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE AREA ORIGINALLY FROM THE FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT COLD FRONT. HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE COLD FRONT. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT... IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 20N77W TO 16N81W TO 10N82W. FROM 10N TO 17N W OF FRONT TO 85W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT TO 30 KT NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22N86W TO 18N84W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W 28N73W BEYOND 25N80W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N38W 15N45W...TO 11N57W AND 11N62W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 12N77W TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N34W...TO 25N35W 23N40W 24N45W. THE COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY A DISTINCT LINE BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N22W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N51W AND 22N59W... TO 14N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT....A COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 20N74W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KT N OF 30N...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 75W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM 25N35W TO 23N40W TO 24N45W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT