000 AXNT20 KNHC 080557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EST TUE APR 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE 18-HOUR ATLANTIC OCEAN FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 27N82W TO 21N88W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS... EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 93W...ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 88W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 4N12W AND 2N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N15W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 17W...TO 1S20W 3S30W 3S37W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 6S42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 10W...TO THE SOUTH OF 8N12W 7N20W 3N28W 2N34W 1N48W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE UNITED STATES... FROM INDIANA AND OHIO INTO TEXAS...IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N88W...THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND 89W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... FROM THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE CURVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA...THAT IS AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF THE TROUGH. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... ICAO STATION KVBS IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. ICAO STATIONS KATP AND KIPN ARE REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE BEAUMONT TEXAS AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF LOUISIANA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MULTI- LAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY TO PERRY FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA GORDA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 30N87W TO 24N91W TO 19N96W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A RIDGE RUNS FROM NICARAGUA...ACROSS CUBA...BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N76W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 82W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF 17N87W 19N84W 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N87W TO 16N85W...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...TO THE WEST OF 83W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AREA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N21W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N32W 21N43W...AND TO 14N49W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONSISTS OF A 1010 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N25W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEYOND 32N27W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 27N21W AND 23N25W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 23N25W TO 21N30W AND 20N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N50W 22N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAIN- SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 56W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 30N87W TO 24N91W TO 19N96W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. THE 06-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT