000
AXNT20 KNHC 071805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE...                                        
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO 
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA BY TUE MORNING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A GALE EVENT BY TUE AFTERNOON 
WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OF SHORT DURATION. SEE LATEST NHC 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N14W TO 02N22W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 01N22W AND CONTINUES 01S32W TO 02S42W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 
10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-02S W OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS FROM A 998 MB LOW ON THE WESTERN BORDER OF KENTUCKY AND 
TENNESSEE. FROM THE LOW...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 
WESTERN ALABAMA AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF FROM 30N88W 
TO 24N93W TO A 1005 MB ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. A 
SQUALL LINE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE 
SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N AND 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 140 NM W OF IT. CONVECTION 
OVER THE GULF AND NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN U.S. IS BEING 
ENHANCED BY HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED 
FROM THE CARIBBEAN AS SHOWN BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD 
OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 90W ARE 20-25 KT...OVER THE SW GULF FROM 
10-15 KT...WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BEHIND THE 
FRONT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
GULF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E-SE TO EXIT THE BASIN TUE NIGHT. 
ON TUE AFTERNOON A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD TO 
SUPPORT A GALE EVENT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY FEATURES EXIST OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS INDUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...GENERALLY 
SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER PANAMA. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND LACK OF DEEP 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BASIN-WIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON 
TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 
ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS ACCOMPANIED WITH RAINSHOWERS. THE 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO 
HONDURAS BY WED MORNING.
  
HISPANIOLA...                                                 
WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE AND 
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS PREVAILING...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING 
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HEAVY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP STARTING WED NIGHT 
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CUBA PUSHING FORWARD HIGH AMOUNTS 
OF MOISTURE.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 32N26W 
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A TRIPLE POINT ALONG 33N23W TO 
21N34W TO 21N44W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 
24N49W TO A 1021 MB LOW NEAR 24N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXIST 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. THE 1008 MB LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE 
SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N24W. A  
GENERALLY WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF 
THE ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING WINDS OF 10-15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL 
ENTER THE SW N ATLC TUE NIGHT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR