000 AXNT20 KNHC 071015 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERA CRUZ. BY LATE TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT ACROSS THE GULF WITH SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER WINDS. A SHORT DURATION NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GALE EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 05N EAST OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERA CRUZ. A 1000 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A SMALL PORTION OF A WARM FRONT CUTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE 20-30 KT...WHILE THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NORTH OF 25N. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE FRONT OVER LOUISIANA AS SEEN IN THE COASTAL RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXIST FROM COASTAL EASTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE FRONT AND DEEP CONVECTION ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE CONVECTION WILL SET UP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...10 TO 20 KT. BY LATE TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO. ALSO...A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT ACROSS THE GULF WITH SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER WINDS BY LATE TUESDAY. A SHORT DURATION GALE EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY FEATURES EXIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. THE MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INDUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADEWINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS UP TO 25 KT WERE OBSERVED BY THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER BOTH NORTH OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...GENERALLY SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING YESTERDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT HAVE DISSIPATED. WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS PREVAILING... CONTINUED SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION...IT IS UNLIKELY FOR SUCH SHOWERS TO PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 32N26W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N47W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT ATTACHED TO A WEAK 1018 MB LOW AT 25N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 1008 MB LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER- LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N28W. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILL OVER THE NEXT DAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH HAS BEEN REBUILDING SOME OVERNIGHT AS IT NOW HAS A PRESSURE OF 1023 MB CENTERED OVER 28N61W AS WELL AS A BROAD HIGH OF 1026 MB JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 34N42W. THE GENERALLY WEAK SYNOPTIC- SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS. AS OF 0900 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 32N77W OFF OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS NOR CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA