000 AXNT20 KNHC 070601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 05N EAST OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO. A 1001 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST JUST NORTH OF VERA CRUZ...SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A SMALL PORTION OF A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE 20-25 KT...WHILE THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NORTH OF 25N. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE FRONT OVER LOUISIANA AS SEEN IN THE COASTAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA WITH A WEAKENING PRE- FRONTAL SQUALL LINE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXIST FROM COASTAL EASTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE FRONT AND DEEP CONVECTION ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE CONVECTION WILL SET UP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...10 TO 20 KT...BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY FEATURES EXIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. THE MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INDUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADEWINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS UP TO 25 KT WERE OBSERVED BY THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER BOTH NORTH OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...GENERALLY SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY. ...HISPANIOLA... SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ARE DISSIPATING. WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS PREVAILING...CONTINUED SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER... WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION...IT IS UNLIKELY FOR SUCH SHOWERS TO PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 33N29W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N46W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING FRONT TO 24N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N30W. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILL. THE BERMUDA HIGH HAS BEEN REBUILDING SOME TODAY AS IT HAS A PRESSURE OF 1023 MB CENTERED OVER 29N60W. THE GENERALLY WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AT 32N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS NOR CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA