000 AXNT20 KNHC 062317 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N20W TO 3N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST OVER BETWEEN SAINT AUGUSTINE TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA THEN ALONG 30N88W INTO LOUISIANA S OF NEW ORLEANS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS INTO N MEXICO IS RE-ENFORCING THE FRONT FORMING A COLD FRONT THAT IS RE-ENTERING THE W GULF AT 06/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM A 1002 MB LOW NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO A SECOND 1002 MB LOW NEAR 27N97W TO OVER NE MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE N GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-94W AND N OF 24N W OF 95W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL QUICKLY TRACK NE THROUGH MON WHILE DEEPENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W GULF TONIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE EARLY MON...FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF LATE MON...FROM JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE...THEN SE OUT OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC COVERS THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 76W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS INTO TUE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TUE. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W AND ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N63W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W AND CONNECTING TO THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N80W WHICH CONTINUES INTO THE GULF ACROSS SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N29W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N36W 23N44W TO 25N53W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 30N25W ALONG 24N30W TO 20N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE CONUS LATE MON THEN MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY ON TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW