000 AXNT20 KNHC 061801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N16W TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W AND THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02S-05N BETWEEN 06W-17W...FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 19W-36W AND FROM 01S-01N W OF 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW OVER NE MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA. FROM THERE...THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A STATIONARY FRONT. SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE AND FURTHER INLAND TO FUEL HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM NE TEXAS ALL THE WAY EASTWARD TO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS FOR THE FRONT...AS MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S-SE U.S. AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EPAC SUPPORT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION. OVER THE NW GULF...ADVECTION FOG IS PRESENT N OF 27N W OF 89W. LATE TONIGHT...THE EXTENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOUISIANA-ARKANSAS BORDER. ENHANCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND COASTS FROM TEXAS TO NORTHERN FLORIDA DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AS WELL AS LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. AFTER CYCLOGENESIS...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT W OF LOUISIANA WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ALOFT...THE BROAD RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR SUBSIDING BASIN-WIDE WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM WESTWARD WITH THE TRADES OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY 20 KT...WITH 25 KT NORTHEASTERLIES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED OVER OR NEAR HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHER WATER CONTENT STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND THUS SUPPORTING SHALLOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N33W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N42W TO 26N50W WHERE ITS TAIL STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 27N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 30N23W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N32W TO 19N42W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM W OF IT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20-25 KT WESTERLY WIND W-NW OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. OTHERWISE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT CENTERED NEAR 28N63W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TUE EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE SW N ATLC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR