000 AXNT20 KNHC 060605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS SOUTH OF 03N BETWEEN 20 AND 30W AND SOUTH OF 04N BETWEEN 05W AND 10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA. FROM THERE...THE FRONT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EARLIER MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE GULF...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR 20 TO 25 KT EASTERLIES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE JUST AVAILABLE 0254Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WELL SHOWS THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO EAST NORTH OF THE FRONT. LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS FOR THE FRONT...AS PRIMARILY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA DOMINATES. OVER THE NEXT DAY...THE EXTENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. ENHANCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND COASTS FROM TEXAS TO NORTHERN FLORIDA DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ALREADY IN PLACE...LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT...AND PERHAPS SOME DAYTIME HEATING. CARIBBEAN SEA... NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF HIGHER WATER CONTENT FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA TO WEST OF JAMAICA...WHICH MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST OF BERMUDA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. BOTH OF THESE MAY HAVE HELPED INDUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE SAME AREAS AS WELL AS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY OVER HISPANIOLA AND JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY AND THE TPW BAND BREAKS UP...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN... WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY 15-20 KT...WITH 20-25 KT NORTHEASTERLIES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... O SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED OVER OR NEAR HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF HIGHER WATER CONTENT IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST OF BERMUDA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. BOTH OF THESE MAY HAVE HELPED INDUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY OVER HISPANIOLA. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY AND THE TPW BAND BREAKS UP...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N34W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N58W WITH THE LAST FEW HUNDRED MILES OF IT ARE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 32N25W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. AN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH...AN OLD COLD FRONT...REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS A BAND OF HIGHER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR...A WEAK MAXIMUM OF TPW HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST AND IS REACHING SOUTH AMERICA. THIS FEATURE MAY BE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...THOUGH NOT YET ANALYZED AS SUCH AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY ACT TO ENHANCE THE RAIN OVER VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT DAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20-25 KT WESTERLY WIND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT EXPECTED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH BEING TEMPORARILY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA