000 AXNT20 KNHC 052312 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT APR 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N17W TO 2N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N16W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT AT 05/2100 UTC OVER SE GEORGIA TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA WITH A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER THEN ALONG 29N89W 26N97W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-94W AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 30N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 28N IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL LIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WILL RETURN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON THEN FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE N/CENTRAL YUCATAN TUE AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO NW VENEZUELA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE WITH FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONTINUING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W AND ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N64W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N44W TO 30N56W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W ALONG 23N37W INTO THE TROPICS TO 19N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL AND A WEAKER 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 21N28W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E AND WEAKEN BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE WEAK GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR 31N79W TO SAINT AUGUSTINE SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BACK NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW