000 AXNT20 KNHC 051803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT APR 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 03N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N14W TO 02S24W TO 02S40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 10W-17W. CLUSTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 08S-02N BETWEEN 15W-31W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 08S-01N BETWEEN 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE E PAC S OF MEXICO EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF...CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THUS PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY- WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...ON THE MIDDLE LEVELS A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO 27N92W THEN CONTINUING SW TO 24N95W TO THE MEXICO EASTERN COAST NEAR 21N97W. LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PAC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 95W. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 21N94W TO 18N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE TRANSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCURR ACROSS THE NW GULF AND TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTS LATE SUNDAY. THE NEWLY FORMED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN W OF 76W WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN. EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE MUCH OF THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT REMAINS DRY AND STABLE. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS GENERALLY N OF 16N E OF 68W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST TRADES NOW RANGE FROM 15-20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OF 25 KT WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND AREAS BETWEEN 68W-78W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES IN TERMS OF WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLAND BEING ENHANCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ADVECTS WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA AS WELL AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N76W TO W OF FREEPORT NEAR 26N79W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DIPS INTO THE AREA ALONG 30N42W TO 29N51W TO 32N60W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N31W TO 22N40W TO 18N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 26N65W INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE TROUGH IS DOMINATED BY ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 22N29W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR