000 AXNT20 KNHC 051039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 03N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 19W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES TO THE NORTH. THIS LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 29N89W THEN CONTINUING SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N95W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. WHILE MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH...THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BE VERY WEAK...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W- 90W...WITH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY W OF 90W. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS ANY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW GULF AND TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTS LATE SUNDAY. THE NEWLY FORMED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MUCH OF THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT REMAINING DRY AND STABLE. HOWEVER...LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS GENERALLY N OF 15N E OF 84W. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EAST TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND AREAS BETWEEN 68W-78W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ADVECTS WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING AND THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N66W. TO THE NORTH OF THIS RIDGING ALONG THE DISCUSSION BORDER...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N60W TO 31N56W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 47W-63W MOSTLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N30W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 23N40W TO 19N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 36N08W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SW TO 18N36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN