000 AXNT20 KNHC 050553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 03N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 16W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH. THIS LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED AS OF 05/0300 UTC FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR 29N91W...THEN CONTINUES SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N95W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. WHILE MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH... THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BE VERY WEAK...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-90W. OTHER PRE-FRONTAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SE OF THIS AREA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 84W-88W. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS ANY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW GULF AND TEXAS COAST LATE SUNDAY. THE NEWLY FORMED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MUCH OF THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT REMAINING DRY AND STABLE. A PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A DYING BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 17N58W TO SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EAST TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND AREAS BETWEEN 68W-78W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ADVECTS WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING AND THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N66W. TO THE NORTH OF THIS RIDGING ALONG THE DISCUSSION BORDER...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N60W TO 31N57W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 49W-65W MOSTLY WITHIN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 25N40W TO 17N58W AND BECOMES WEAKENS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN