000 AXNT20 KNHC 042344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N14W TO 3N17W WHERE IT THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-20W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OVER E LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY ALONG 26N96W THEN INTO NE MEXICO N OF TAMPICO NEAR 24N98W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS W OF 88W WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM SE ALABAMA TO 27N85W SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N90W TO OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO 19N96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE REACHING FROM THE FAR W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SAT AND SUN. A LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP NEAR NE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA SUN A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR NE TEXAS/SW LOUISIANA SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO E PANAMA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RACING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A DISSIPATING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-20N E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 70W-82W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SW HAITI. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PREVIOUS SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N68W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS ALONG 23N45W TO 17N59W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR MADEIRA ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW