000 AXNT20 KNHC 041858 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI APR 04 2014 CORRECTION FOR THE HEADER TO MIATWDAT...AND TO UPDATE THE INFORMATION ABOUT THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO 6N17W AND 2N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N18W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 5S29. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 14W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 41W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/COASTAL NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 22N. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUDS...KMZG AND A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE WITH FOG...KGBK...KCRH...KEIR AND A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES WITH FOG...KSPR...KMDJ...KATP IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA. MULTI- LAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. MULTI- LAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COAST STATES FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER BROOKSVILLE AND PARTS OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS FORT MYERS. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N92W 26N97W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N60W...TO 17N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 12N77W. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N40W 21N50W AND 20N53W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N53W TO 18N60W 17N70W AND TO EASTERN JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 83W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.71 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.81 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 30N35W AND 25N41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N41W 23N46W 18N56W 18N60W. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ALONG A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH WILL SPEND THE NEXT 48 HOURS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ALONG A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO A POSITION ALONG 20N60W-TO-THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AT 48 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 270 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL GEORGIA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS OR SO. SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA AFTER THE INVERTED TROUGH DISAPPEARS. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...ELSEWHERE AND AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANY THE SHEAR AXIS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 29N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1024 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W...TO 27N61W AND TO 22N52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N9W...TO 32N15W 24N25W 19N36W AND 19N49W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N37W TO 20N54W. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 17 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 52W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 62W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT