000 AXNT20 KNHC 041046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 07N18W TO 04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 03N BETWEEN 11W-21W...AND S OF 01N BETWEEN 23W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING ON THE HEELS OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROGRESSING EAST- NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE POISED TO INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING...PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME N-NE ACROSS THE NW GULF. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS SOUTH OF 25N...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE NW GULF LATE SUNDAY WITH THE NEWLY FORMED LOW TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT TRANSITIONS INTO UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW E OF 80W OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND STABLE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. A PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM 19N60W TO SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N68W. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND AREAS BETWEEN 70W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM NEAR ANGUILLA TO S OF PUERTO RICO 17N68W. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING AND THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE W OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N70W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 36N42W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 25N45W TO 20N54W AND BECOMES A SHEAR LINE WEST FROM THAT POINT TO SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AND THE SHEAR LINE S OF 23N. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN