000 AXNT20 KNHC 040545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 01N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 07W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 01N BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND S OF 02N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING ON THE HEELS OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE POISED TO INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SEE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME N-NE ACROSS THE NW GULF. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS SOUTH OF 25N...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE NW GULF LATE SUNDAY WITH THE NEWLY FORMED LOW TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT TRANSITIONS INTO UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW E OF 80W OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND STABLE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. A PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W TO 18N71W. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN FROM 16N-20N E OF 74W. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. E- NE TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND AREAS BETWEEN 70W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM E-SE OF THE ISLAND ANALYZED FROM PUERTO RICO TO 18N71W. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 67W-74W. THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND WHILE DRIFTING FARTHER EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING AND THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE W OF 58W ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N71W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 35N45W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 22N52W AND BECOMES A SHEAR LINE WEST FROM THAT POINT TO SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AND THE SHEAR LINE. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN