000 AXNT20 KNHC 032346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EST THU APR 3 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N18W AND DIPS S OF THE EQUATOR WEST OF 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. IS SUPPORTING BROAD SCALE ANTICYCLONIC E-SE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. SCATTEROMETER SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15- 20 KT W OF 90W AND 10-15 KT E OF 90W. AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY FRIDAY THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FRI NIGHT...THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTH A WARM FRONT SAT THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS ENHANCED WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. A SHEAR LINE...REMNANTS OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. THE SHEAR LINE IS A FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. HISPANIOLA... A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WSW FROM 30N48W WSW TO NEAR 22N769W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N41W SW TO 24N52W THEN AS A SHEAR LINE N OF PUERTO RICO TO SE HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 48W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SHALLOW MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE W OF 48W. THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC REGION IS DOMINATED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N70W. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL