000 AXNT20 KNHC 031804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU APR 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N13W TO 2N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N18W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 3S30W AND 5S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1N TO 5S BETWEEN 24W AND 50W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM MEXICO. THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 90W...EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 18N TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N73W...TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...ALONG 30N INTO EAST TEXAS...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH HAZE/FOG...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF... KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...AND KCRH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 89W AND 95W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N64W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THROUGH NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N44W TO 26N50W TO 21N59W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N59W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO SOUTHERN JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 82W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 29N43W 26N47W 22N52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N52W 21N59W. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... LIGHT RAIN AND A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS LA ROMANA AND SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ALONG A CUBA-TO-NICARAGUA LINE...AND IT WILL MOVE TO A LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE-TO-NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 12 HOURS...AND THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AT 24 HOURS...CONTINUING UNTIL 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ALONG A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA THE HONDURAS COAST. THE TROUGH WILL END AT 48 HOURS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE NORTHERN PART OF FLORIDA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP NEAR 29N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY-TO- SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE SECOND 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N64W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THROUGH NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N44W TO 26N50W TO 21N59W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N59W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO SOUTHERN JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 82W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 29N43W 26N47W 22N52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N52W 21N59W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. NO MONSOON TROUGH IS APPARENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE FORMED WITH TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS FROM 13N26W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 20N21W. NO SIGNFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...TO A 1023 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N73W...TO 23N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N27W...TO 22N36W... TO 19N58W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 31N44W 26N50W-TO-MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN JAMAICA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N43W TO 21N58W THEN DISSIPATING FRONT TO 18.5N68.5W. N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 58W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N W OF FRONT TO 63W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. N OF 25N WITHIN 240 NM SE OF FRONT SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL...HIGHEST N. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM 22N35W TO 13N42W TO 09N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT