000 AXNT20 KNHC 031041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 04N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 21W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW GULF NORTHEAST TO OVER THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS N OF 25N. E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY MAINTAINING THE E-SE WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT TRANSITIONS INTO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND STABLE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS MORNING. A PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 20N63W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 18N74W. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-79W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND ANALYZED FROM 20N63W TO 18N74W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 33N46W SW TO A BASE NEAR 23N70W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W SW TO 21N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N73W. FARTHER EAST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN