000 AXNT20 KNHC 030004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W THEN INTO TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 02N11W TO 01N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N15W AND THEN ALONG 01S24W 03S33W TO 03S40W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05S-02N BETWEEN 08W- 15W...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04S-03N BETWEEN 21W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 29N73W EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS THUS PROVIDING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SOUTHEASTERLIES IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT DOMINATE E OF 90W...HOWEVER STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF SUPPORT WINDS FROM 15-20 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT BASIN-WIDE STABILITY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS TEXAS AND ADJACENT WATERS WHICH IS SUPPORTING ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N W OF 91W. RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ATLC WILL KEEP THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW TO A BASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N62W W-SW TO NORTHERN HAITI NEAR 19N72W TO SW HAITI NEAR 18N74W TO JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOSTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA. MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING THU. HOWEVER...REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS MAINLY FOR HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ATLC WATERS TO NORTHERN HAITI...THEN ACROSS SW HAITI TO JAMAICA. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO ADJACENT WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE ISLAND THU MORNING. HOWEVER...REMNANT MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. ATLANTIC... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N73W COVERS SW N ATLC WATERS W OF 66W. FARTHER E ON THE BASIN...A BROAD MIDDLE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 30N47W SW TO 25N55W TO 22N62W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N68W TO SW HAITI NEAR 18N74W TO JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 22N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 27N WITHIN 130 NM W OF OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N36W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAKNESS IN THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM PORTUGAL SW TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR