000 AXNT20 KNHC 021040 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 01W-10W...AND S OF 03N BETWEEN 15W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN. AS A RESULT OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STABILITY...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N74W. E-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY INCREASING THE E-SE WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT TRANSITIONS INTO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THIS MORNING. A PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING WITH THE MOST MID- LEVEL ENERGY IS NOTED NORTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SW TO NORTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N76W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN 68W- 79W. OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-78W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW OF THE ISLAND ANALYZED FROM 21N70W TO 19N76W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 69W AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NW NORTH ATLC NEAR 42N55W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N50W SW TO 23N63W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA VIA THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N75W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N41W. THE RIDGING WEAKENS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N12W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N14W TO 24N22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN