000 AXNT20 KNHC 020556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 05N14W TO 02N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 33W TO 01N40W TO THE EQUATOR ONCE AGAIN NEAR 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 15W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN. AS A RESULT OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STABILITY...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. E-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY INCREASING THE E-SE WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT TRANSITIONS INTO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THIS EVENING. A PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING WITH THE MOST MID- LEVEL ENERGY IS NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA COAST ALONG 20N. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-79W. OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 69W-79W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW OF THE ISLAND ANALYZED FROM 22N70W TO 19N78W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 69W AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NW NORTH ATLC NEAR 42N57W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N52W SW TO 23N64W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 59W-70W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N77W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N42W. THE RIDGING WEAKENS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N10W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W TO 28N25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN