000 AXNT20 KNHC 011037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 04N08W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 09W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AS A RESULT OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STABILITY...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N80W. E-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE THURSDAY INCREASING THE E-SE WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 79W. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 21N70W TO 19N77W. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW OF THE ISLAND ANALYZED FROM 21N70W TO 19N77W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 70W AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NW NORTH ATLC NEAR 40N64W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N58W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 21N70W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 19N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 68W-76W. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 26N78W GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN