000 AXNT20 KNHC 010556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 01N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N17W TO THE EQUATOR TO 18W...THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 30W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NORTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W AND EXTENDS WEST ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 06W-12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AS A RESULT OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STABILITY...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W WITH E-SE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE THURSDAY INCREASING THE E-SE WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA DUE TO A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 22N70W TO 19N78W. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NW OF THE ISLAND ANALYZED FROM 22N70W TO 19N78W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 71W AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO THE NW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE TO THE NE AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE TUESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLC NEAR 40N65W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N60W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 21N71W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 69W-78W. FURTHERMORE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 26N80W GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN