000 AXNT20 KNHC 010006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO COASTAL NORTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W THEN INTO TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 02N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 01S33W TO S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 05S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 08W- 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 03S-03N W OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE BASIN COVERS THE SE CONUS...SW N ATLC AND GULF WATERS THUS PROVIDING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FORMER COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N AND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS. THE NE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN GULF WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NE GULF WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC WATERS LATER TONIGHT. ONCE OVER ATLC WATERS...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-78W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N69W TO 18N71W FURTHER ENHANCES THE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING BUT REMNANT MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS MAINLY FOR HISPANIOLA THROUGH WED NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS TO EASTERN CUBA PUSHING MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N69W TO WESTERN- CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FURTHER ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THIS REGION OF THE ISLAND. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING BUT REMNANT MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS MAINLY FOR HISPANIOLA THROUGH WED NIGHT. ATLANTIC... AN ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE ACROSS THE NW ATLC AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 30N62W SW TO 22N69W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE N OF 24N WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS OCCURRING OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AS DISCUSSED IN THE PRIOR SECTIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N45W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR