000 AXNT20 KNHC 311038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N16W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-11W AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 14W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E GULF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 83W-88W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N88W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TONIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO EXTREME NE TEXAS THEN WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 31N ON TUE THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DRAPES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO 20N82W WHERE A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N97W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N OF 18N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO E CUBA. THE FRONT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 71W-77W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEK. HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE ADVECTED OVER THE ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND W OF 71W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNDER CLEAR SKIES. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE THEN DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO RICO ON WED. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT WILL LINGER AND CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N67W CONTINUING ALONG 26N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTA CLARA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N48W. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N61W TO HISPANIOLA TUE THEN DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO RICO WED. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS EVENING AND SHIFT E TO 31N73W ON WED NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NE FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW