000 AXNT20 KNHC 301805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 5N15W AND 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO 2N23W... THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO A LINE ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO 25N80W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 21N90W OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...CURVING TO 19N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT... FROM 22N IN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO HAVE BEEN MOVING AND STILL ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W 28N76W 27N83W 29N89W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SITES. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN HARLINGEN. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE...AT THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT...AND AT THE GEORGE BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT IN HOUSTON. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AT THE MOBILE ALABAMA REGIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE COLD FRONT FROM 24N82W TO 21N90W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 90W. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N55W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N58W...TO GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 12N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 61W/62W FROM 19N TO 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE 27N55W 12N64W TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK AT THE MOMENT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. NO MONSOON TROUGH IS APPARENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE FORMED WITH TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N55W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N58W...TO GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 12N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W...PARTIALLY BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH AND PARTIALLY IN THE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE IN THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA TO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WAS COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 27N55W-TO-12N64W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE REMNANT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 16N TO 23N. IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS. IT HAS SHOWN UP WELL IN A LONG-TERM LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS... FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 32N28W TO 28N37W AND 27N40W. THIS IS A TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WHERE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 29N20W 26N30W AND 26N41W. THE FRONT IS PART OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST WEEK OR SO...AND THEN SPENT 3 DAYS OR SO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N17W 27N25W 25N32W 25N40W 27N44W 28N50W. A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N49W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1031 MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N65W AND 23N70W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 25N80W. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 360 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE EAST OF 55W. COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 25N80W. NW OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 28N WITHIN 360 NM E OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT